AM – you have a credibility problem

[LookinUp]

I should've tempered my initial response with one of those emoticons as Moose's points are valid.

To answer your question, I think significant corner infield upgrades are absolutely necessities this off-season. On the whole though, Andy MacPhail gets a thumbs up from me based on where this team is now versus where it was when he was hired. I don't feel entitled to daily progress reports or press missives. It's clear he subscribes to the 'loose lips sink battleships' school of thought, and I tend to agree.

I believe in the core of this team, and as I've opined all along, any GM sitting in MacPhail's seat will be judged as a failure if they fail to produce. Hurry up April and let the games begin.

I should be clear too. Andy can still sink or swim with me. He still has a chance to complete the rebuild. I just have my doubts that he will.

You probably haven't noticed, but I've mostly been on his side since day one. Heck, just look at my handle on this board to see what I think of things...but will he close the deal or leave me at the altar?

[Sports Guy]

Plus rep from me. Skepticism is definitely warranted after the past three seasons. I actually think that the O's will attempt to make serious moves this winter, but whether AM hasthe chops and the budget to pull it off is an open question.

Actually my big area of discontent is mentioned only in passing here: I am disappointed that more hasn't been done to make the Orioles competitive in finding, signing, and developing amateur players.

The Orioles like to point out that they have spent a lot of money in the draft...And that's great..we all like that.

But, are they spending enough? That's the question.

Internationally, it is improved but still poor.

The Orioles should have an amateur budget of 15-20 million set aside every year to get International and domestic amateur talent.

[LookinUp]

Plus rep from me. Skepticism is definitely warranted after the past three seasons. I actually think that the O's will attempt to make serious moves this winter, but whether AM hasthe chops and the budget to pull it off is an open question.

Actually my big area of discontent is mentioned only in passing here: I am disappointed that more hasn't been done to make the Orioles competitive in finding, signing, and developing amateur players.

Yeah, this OP was focused on the ML team, but the amateur stuff is troubling as well, as you, Tony, SG and others often point out.

[LookinUp]

It's not about credibility, it's about actions. MacPhail has largely done what he said he would do. But now, he needs to begin making his move.

Sure it is. He's not hired to tell us that the FA market isn't deep and then not do anything. That might be true, but it doesn't provide credibility that he'll do what it takes.

He's hired to build a winner, not to diminish expectations and deliver on those diminished expectations.

[Frobby]

The Orioles like to point out that they have spent a lot of money in the draft...And that's great..we all like that.

But, are they spending enough? That's the question.

Internationally, it is improved but still poor.

The Orioles should have an amateur budget of 15-20 million set aside every year to get International and domestic amateur talent.

You may remember that a few months ago, Deadspin published the financial statements of five major league teams. This is what I was able to glean from those:

Seattle - $15.5 mm ("scouting and player development")

Pittsburgh - $23.2 mm ("player development")

Tampa - $21.9 mm ("scouting, player development, and operation of farm clubs")

Los Angeles Angels - $16.3 mm ($8.1 "minor league operations," $8.3 mm "scouting")

Texas - $17.8 mm ($10.8 mm "player development," $7.0 mm "scouting").

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't recall him saying he's a spokesman for the entire board. Instead of sending in your little one liners that are worthless, try adding some analysis to counteract his thoughts if you feel he's so wrong. This the Hangout, step it up.

Say what you want about Sports Guys and his little quips, but he almost always adds his analysis along with this posts.

It was well stated, but I think it's important to consider the whole picture here.

Buck has made no secret of his love affair with Izturis. I have no Earthly clue as to how someone could look at Izturis breadth of production (offensive & defensive) and conclude that it's a good idea to bring him back as our starting shortstop. That's a bad idea that seems to be supported by our new fearless leader.

"First chink in the armor, Ted."

And sure, I think there's a definite need to bring in at LEAST league average competency in to man first & third base. If MacPhail can't manage to do that, I will be highly disappointed because I think it's definitely attainable this offseason... but I will continue to expect the core of this team to be the crux of whether or not the team succeeds.

I will be extremely disappointed if he trades away 4 or 5 guys for Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez and awards them an 8 year deal.

Part of the reason I like MacPhail is that I know he won't pull a Bavasi.

[sangar]

This was a well written OP. He did not use slang or vulgarity. He did not call into play any personal attacks on MacPhail. He simply stated what many of us feel...that Andy MacPhail did a good job of restocking the system, but is not capable of finishing the job.

Almost everything you say here is true. It was very well written and he did a good job of stating his points. I disagree with some of those points and I am pointing out that his premise of speaking for everone here isn't true. In six weeks it very well may be true but right now it is premature to condem AM for an imaginary off season. IMO AM has done a competent job in the rebuild so far and this offseason will be a good test of his abilities to complete the job.

We all know the FO operates close to the vest and none of us know what is going on inside the warehouse so for the next six weeks I will reserve my judgement on his credibility.

[LookinUp]

Almost everything you say here is true. It was very well written and he did a good job of stating his points. I disagree with some of those points and I am pointing out that his premise of speaking for everone here isn't true. In six weeks it very well may be true but right now it is premature to condem AM for an imaginary off season. IMO AM has done a competent job in the rebuild so far and this offseason will be a good test of his abilities to complete the job.

We all know the FO operates close to the vest and none of us know what is going on inside the warehouse so for the next six weeks I will reserve my judgement on his credibility.

Do you view this next couple of months as a sink or swim time for MacPhail?

[Hank Scorpio]

It's not about credibility, it's about actions. MacPhail has largely done what he said he would do. But now, he needs to begin making his move.

I agree with Frobby, 100%.

[Going Underground]

Nice post. This is the year the O's have to do something to keep a dwindling fanbase. I am not getting my hopes up on what I have heard and read. I think we make some higher profile moves then last year,but nothing to get the fanbase thrilled. I see another 90 loss season. Things could change and maybe the O's management gets in gear but time will tell.

[Dipper9]

Almost everything you say here is true. It was very well written and he did a good job of stating his points. I disagree with some of those points and I am pointing out that his premise of speaking for everone here isn't true. In six weeks it very well may be true but right now it is premature to condem AM for an imaginary off season. IMO AM has done a competent job in the rebuild so far and this offseason will be a good test of his abilities to complete the job.

We all know the FO operates close to the vest and none of us know what is going on inside the warehouse so for the next six weeks I will reserve my judgement on his credibility.

Well said.

I would like to hear your thoughts on something though. You have said a couple times now that we are in a better position now then we were when he took over. To a point, I agree with that. Our pitching depth is much better. However, looking at positional talent, we STILL have the same holes at 1b, ss, and 3b, and to a lesser degree left field, that we had 3 years ago. The only permanant solution that MacPhail has put into place is Jones in center. True, he resigned Kakes and Roberts and was able to get Wieters to sign, but many give Angelos credit for the Wieters signing, and Flanny's crew drafted him. From a positional viewpoint, how are we better now than we were in 2007?

I will grant you the offseason is just begun, but I am directing this at your comment that he has done a good job the past three years.

[Stotle]

Sure it is. He's not hired to tell us that the FA market isn't deep and then not do anything. That might be true, but it doesn't provide credibility that he'll do what it takes.

He's hired to build a winner, not to diminish expectations and deliver on those diminished expectations.

Right. I'm not sure if "credibility" is the word I'd use, but the spirit of your post is sort of where I am. I have not previously had an issue with being a realist when it comes to FA signings, trades, etc., mostly because I agreed with the thought that BAL needed to figure out exactly where their "holes" were before going out to plug them (a natural progression when you are building through young talent produced within).

At this point, though, the idea that "BAL shouldn't do anything stupid or harmful" has to be tempered. I say that not because I think BAL SHOULD do something stupid or harmful, long term. Rather, if after 4 years this organization still has figured out a way to build a winner without everything aligning perfectly for the correct FA and trades to be available, they aren't doing their job.

I remain unimpressed with the amateur scouting that I've seen at large showcases and events. I remain unimpressed with the lack of innovation I see in BAL's moves as an organization. I think MacPhail is a solid baseball mind, but I'm not sold on his style working in the AL East. It's the big boy division, and has been said time and time again "you need to build one of the top five teams in all of baseball in order to compete in the AL East."

The mental exercise of figuring out "good" FA contracts with WAR projections or the "correct" time to get aggressive based on being absolutely sure about what you have in the young players has officially fully rolled over into the realm of message board fodder.

A lack of big moves this off-season doesn't necessary signal the assured failure of BAL as a competitive organization in the near future. It does, however, clearly paint the front office as reactionary and, likely, outdated as compared to the rest of the FOs in the division.

[Hank Scorpio]

Do you view this next couple of months as a sink or swim time for MacPhail?

I view the next 12-18 months as sink or swim time for MacPhail.

I would never judge someone based on an offseason, even if he traded Matusz, Jones and Wieters for Prince Fielder's fat hump. I'd at least let the season pan out before I called for his head.

[Frobby]

I view the next 12-18 months as sink or swim time for MacPhail.

I believe his contract expires after the 2011 season. So, I'd say the next 10 months are sink or swim -- assuming he wants to stay.

[Hank Scorpio]

Right. I'm not sure if "credibility" is the word I'd use, but the spirit of your post is sort of where I am. I have not previously had an issue with being a realist when it comes to FA signings, trades, etc., mostly because I agreed with the thought that BAL needed to figure out exactly where their "holes" were before going out to plug them (a natural progression when you are building through young talent produced within).

At this point, though, the idea that "BAL shouldn't do anything stupid or harmful" has to be tempered. I say that not because I think BAL SHOULD do something stupid or harmful, long term. Rather, if after 4 years this organization still has figured out a way to build a winner without everything aligning perfectly for the correct FA and trades to be available, they aren't doing their job.

I remain unimpressed with the amateur scouting that I've seen at large showcases and events. I remain unimpressed with the lack of innovation I see in BAL's moves as an organization. I think MacPhail is a solid baseball mind, but I'm not sold on his style working in the AL East. It's the big boy division, and has been said time and time again "you need to build one of the top five teams in all of baseball in order to compete in the AL East."

The mental exercise of figuring out "good" FA contracts with WAR projections or the "correct" time to get aggressive based on being absolutely sure about what you have in the young players has officially fully rolled over into the realm of message board fodder.

A lack of big moves this off-season doesn't necessary signal the assured failure of BAL as a competitive organization in the near future. It does, however, clearly paint the front office as reactionary and, likely, outdated as compared to the rest of the FOs in the division.

Which organizations are best represented at large showcases and events?